Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW)
$559.48
+5.39 (+0.97%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 2,608.82 | 3,460.44 | 4,519.48 | 5,896 | 7,245 | 9,356.66 | 12,083.79 | 15,605.78 | 20,154.31 | 26,028.57 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 163.31 | 352.58 | 518.31 | 749 | 859 | 982.03 | 1,268.25 | 1,637.90 | 2,115.29 | 2,731.82 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 13.71 | 100.47 | 181.93 | 277 | 426 | 337.44 | 435.80 | 562.82 | 726.86 | 938.71 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 149.60 | 252.11 | 336.38 | 472 | 433 | 644.58 | 832.45 | 1,075.08 | 1,388.43 | 1,793.11 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 1,497.92 | 1,691.10 | 3,092.04 | 3,304 | 4,280 | 5,423.42 | 7,004.15 | 9,045.61 | 11,682.08 | 15,086.99 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 574.81 | 835.28 | 1,009.41 | 1,390 | 1,725 | 2,168.70 | 2,800.80 | 3,617.14 | 4,671.40 | 6,032.95 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 139.89 | 175.04 | 228.92 | 303 | 369 | 481.27 | 621.54 | 802.70 | 1,036.66 | 1,338.81 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 30.73 | 52.96 | 34.24 | 89 | 274 | 163.88 | 211.65 | 273.33 | 353 | 455.89 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -248.86 | -337.58 | -432.52 | -399 | -550 | -808.86 | -1,044.61 | -1,349.07 | -1,742.28 | -2,250.09 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 559.48 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.007 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 204 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 18.55 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.99% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.295 |
Total Debt | 2,232 |
Total Equity | 114,133.92 |
Total Capital | 116,365.92 |
Debt Weighting | 1.92 |
Equity Weighting | 98.08 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 2,608.82 | 3,460.44 | 4,519.48 | 5,896 | 7,245 | 9,356.66 | 12,083.79 | 15,605.78 | 20,154.31 | 26,028.57 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 163.31 | 352.58 | 518.31 | 749 | 859 | 982.03 | 1,268.25 | 1,637.90 | 2,115.29 | 2,731.82 |
EBIT | 13.71 | 100.47 | 181.93 | 277 | 426 | 337.44 | 435.80 | 562.82 | 726.86 | 938.71 |
Tax Rate | 31.57% | -832.79% | 20.57% | 7.63% | 18.55% | -150.90% | -150.90% | -150.90% | -150.90% | -150.90% |
EBIAT | 9.38 | 937.16 | 144.51 | 255.86 | 346.99 | 846.64 | 1,093.40 | 1,412.09 | 1,823.66 | 2,355.19 |
Depreciation | 149.60 | 252.11 | 336.38 | 472 | 433 | 644.58 | 832.45 | 1,075.08 | 1,388.43 | 1,793.11 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -260.47 | -174.14 | -380.58 | -335 | -443.70 | -632.10 | -816.33 | -1,054.27 | -1,361.55 |
Inventories | - | -35.15 | -53.89 | -74.08 | -66 | -112.27 | -140.27 | -181.16 | -233.96 | -302.15 |
Accounts Payable | - | 22.23 | -18.72 | 54.76 | 185 | -110.12 | 47.77 | 61.69 | 79.67 | 102.89 |
Capital Expenditure | -248.86 | -337.58 | -432.52 | -399 | -550 | -808.86 | -1,044.61 | -1,349.07 | -1,742.28 | -2,250.09 |
UFCF | -89.88 | 578.30 | -198.37 | -71.03 | 13.99 | 16.27 | 156.64 | 202.29 | 261.25 | 337.40 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 14.91 | 131.50 | 155.61 | 184.13 | 217.88 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 704.03 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.14 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 344.15 |
Terminal Value | 4,819.99 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 3,112.62 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 3,816.65 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 762 |
Equity Value | 3,054.65 |
Shares Outstanding | 204 |
Equity Value Per Share | 14.97 |