Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT)

$151.21

+1.74 (+1.16%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -22.64 | 151.21 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 5,2596,7647,8809,66811,72714,339.3117,533.5421,439.3226,215.1532,054.84
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -135-1-544467-141-167.98-205.40-251.16-307.10-375.51
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -167-88-655340-312-342.21-418.44-511.65-625.62-764.99
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3287111127171174.23213.04260.49318.52389.47
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 1,8061,7571,7473,5003,3504,223.085,163.826,314.117,720.649,440.50
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 402406468626695917.341,121.691,371.561,677.092,050.67
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 295377434793588857.691,048.751,282.371,568.041,917.33
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -125-135-78-85-25-185.12-226.36-276.78-338.44-413.83
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 151.21
Beta 1.765
Diluted Shares Outstanding 195.85
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -16.22
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.45%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.063
Total Debt 1,683
Total Equity 29,613.93
Total Capital 31,296.93
Debt Weighting 5.38
Equity Weighting 94.62
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 5,2596,7647,8809,66811,72714,339.3117,533.5421,439.3226,215.1532,054.84
EBITDA -135-1-544467-141-167.98-205.40-251.16-307.10-375.51
EBIT -167-88-655340-312-342.21-418.44-511.65-625.62-764.99
Tax Rate 54.91%-41.98%18.05%113.65%-16.22%25.68%25.68%25.68%25.68%25.68%
EBIAT -75.29-124.95-536.75-46.43-362.59-254.31-310.96-380.24-464.94-568.51
Depreciation 3287111127171174.23213.04260.49318.52389.47
Accounts Receivable --4-62-158-69-222.34-204.35-249.87-305.53-373.59
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -8257359-205269.69191.06233.62285.66349.30
Capital Expenditure -125-135-78-85-25-185.12-226.36-276.78-338.44-413.83
UFCF -168.29-94.95-508.75196.57-490.59-217.86-337.57-412.77-504.72-617.15
WACC
PV UFCF -195.21-271.04-296.97-325.38-356.51
SUM PV UFCF -1,445.12

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.60
Free cash flow (t + 1) -629.49
Terminal Value -6,557.22
Present Value of Terminal Value -3,787.90

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -5,233.02
Net Debt -800
Equity Value -4,433.02
Shares Outstanding 195.85
Equity Value Per Share -22.64