Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT)
$152.96
+0.60 (+0.39%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,259 | 6,764 | 7,880 | 9,668 | 11,727 | 14,339.31 | 17,533.54 | 21,439.32 | 26,215.15 | 32,054.84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 443 | 289 | -88 | 467 | -284 | 401.16 | 490.52 | 599.79 | 733.40 | 896.77 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 411 | 202 | -199 | 340 | -455 | 226.93 | 277.49 | 339.30 | 414.88 | 507.30 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 32 | 87 | 111 | 127 | 171 | 174.23 | 213.04 | 260.49 | 318.52 | 389.47 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1,806 | 1,757 | 1,747 | 3,500 | 3,350 | 4,223.08 | 5,163.82 | 6,314.11 | 7,720.64 | 9,440.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 402 | 406 | 468 | 626 | 695 | 917.34 | 1,121.69 | 1,371.56 | 1,677.09 | 2,050.67 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | 120 | 146.73 | 179.42 | 219.38 | 268.25 | 328.01 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 427 | 549 | 638 | 793 | 588 | 1,076.85 | 1,316.72 | 1,610.04 | 1,968.69 | 2,407.24 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -125 | -135 | -78 | -85 | -25 | -185.12 | -226.36 | -276.78 | -338.44 | -413.83 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 152.96 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.727 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 195.85 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -16.22 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.45% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.753 |
| Total Debt | 1,683 |
| Total Equity | 29,956.66 |
| Total Capital | 31,639.66 |
| Debt Weighting | 5.32 |
| Equity Weighting | 94.68 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,259 | 6,764 | 7,880 | 9,668 | 11,727 | 14,339.31 | 17,533.54 | 21,439.32 | 26,215.15 | 32,054.84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 443 | 289 | -88 | 467 | -284 | 401.16 | 490.52 | 599.79 | 733.40 | 896.77 |
| EBIT | 411 | 202 | -199 | 340 | -455 | 226.93 | 277.49 | 339.30 | 414.88 | 507.30 |
| Tax Rate | 54.91% | -41.98% | 18.05% | 113.65% | -16.22% | 25.68% | 25.68% | 25.68% | 25.68% | 25.68% |
| EBIAT | 185.31 | 286.81 | -163.07 | -46.43 | -528.78 | 168.65 | 206.22 | 252.15 | 308.32 | 377.01 |
| Depreciation | 32 | 87 | 111 | 127 | 171 | 174.23 | 213.04 | 260.49 | 318.52 | 389.47 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -4 | -62 | -158 | -69 | -222.34 | -204.35 | -249.87 | -305.53 | -373.59 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | -26.73 | -32.69 | -39.97 | -48.87 | -59.76 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 122 | 89 | 155 | -205 | 488.85 | 239.88 | 293.31 | 358.65 | 438.55 |
| Capital Expenditure | -125 | -135 | -78 | -85 | -25 | -185.12 | -226.36 | -276.78 | -338.44 | -413.83 |
| UFCF | 92.31 | 356.81 | -103.07 | -7.43 | -656.78 | 397.53 | 195.74 | 239.35 | 292.66 | 357.86 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 354.11 | 155.32 | 169.18 | 184.27 | 200.72 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,063.61 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 12.26 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 365.01 |
| Terminal Value | 3,557.63 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,995.42 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 3,059.03 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -800 |
| Equity Value | 3,859.03 |
| Shares Outstanding | 195.85 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 19.70 |