Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT)
$151.21
+1.74 (+1.16%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,259 | 6,764 | 7,880 | 9,668 | 11,727 | 14,339.31 | 17,533.54 | 21,439.32 | 26,215.15 | 32,054.84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -135 | -1 | -544 | 467 | -141 | -167.98 | -205.40 | -251.16 | -307.10 | -375.51 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -167 | -88 | -655 | 340 | -312 | -342.21 | -418.44 | -511.65 | -625.62 | -764.99 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 32 | 87 | 111 | 127 | 171 | 174.23 | 213.04 | 260.49 | 318.52 | 389.47 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1,806 | 1,757 | 1,747 | 3,500 | 3,350 | 4,223.08 | 5,163.82 | 6,314.11 | 7,720.64 | 9,440.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 402 | 406 | 468 | 626 | 695 | 917.34 | 1,121.69 | 1,371.56 | 1,677.09 | 2,050.67 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 295 | 377 | 434 | 793 | 588 | 857.69 | 1,048.75 | 1,282.37 | 1,568.04 | 1,917.33 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -125 | -135 | -78 | -85 | -25 | -185.12 | -226.36 | -276.78 | -338.44 | -413.83 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 151.21 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.765 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 195.85 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -16.22 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.45% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.063 |
| Total Debt | 1,683 |
| Total Equity | 29,613.93 |
| Total Capital | 31,296.93 |
| Debt Weighting | 5.38 |
| Equity Weighting | 94.62 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,259 | 6,764 | 7,880 | 9,668 | 11,727 | 14,339.31 | 17,533.54 | 21,439.32 | 26,215.15 | 32,054.84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -135 | -1 | -544 | 467 | -141 | -167.98 | -205.40 | -251.16 | -307.10 | -375.51 |
| EBIT | -167 | -88 | -655 | 340 | -312 | -342.21 | -418.44 | -511.65 | -625.62 | -764.99 |
| Tax Rate | 54.91% | -41.98% | 18.05% | 113.65% | -16.22% | 25.68% | 25.68% | 25.68% | 25.68% | 25.68% |
| EBIAT | -75.29 | -124.95 | -536.75 | -46.43 | -362.59 | -254.31 | -310.96 | -380.24 | -464.94 | -568.51 |
| Depreciation | 32 | 87 | 111 | 127 | 171 | 174.23 | 213.04 | 260.49 | 318.52 | 389.47 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -4 | -62 | -158 | -69 | -222.34 | -204.35 | -249.87 | -305.53 | -373.59 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 82 | 57 | 359 | -205 | 269.69 | 191.06 | 233.62 | 285.66 | 349.30 |
| Capital Expenditure | -125 | -135 | -78 | -85 | -25 | -185.12 | -226.36 | -276.78 | -338.44 | -413.83 |
| UFCF | -168.29 | -94.95 | -508.75 | 196.57 | -490.59 | -217.86 | -337.57 | -412.77 | -504.72 | -617.15 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -195.21 | -271.04 | -296.97 | -325.38 | -356.51 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -1,445.12 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 11.60 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -629.49 |
| Terminal Value | -6,557.22 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -3,787.90 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -5,233.02 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -800 |
| Equity Value | -4,433.02 |
| Shares Outstanding | 195.85 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -22.64 |