Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT)

$152.96

+0.60 (+0.39%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 19.70 | 152.96 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 5,2596,7647,8809,66811,72714,339.3117,533.5421,439.3226,215.1532,054.84
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 443289-88467-284401.16490.52599.79733.40896.77
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 411202-199340-455226.93277.49339.30414.88507.30
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3287111127171174.23213.04260.49318.52389.47
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 1,8061,7571,7473,5003,3504,223.085,163.826,314.117,720.649,440.50
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 402406468626695917.341,121.691,371.561,677.092,050.67
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----120146.73179.42219.38268.25328.01
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 4275496387935881,076.851,316.721,610.041,968.692,407.24
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -125-135-78-85-25-185.12-226.36-276.78-338.44-413.83
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 152.96
Beta 1.727
Diluted Shares Outstanding 195.85
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -16.22
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.45%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.753
Total Debt 1,683
Total Equity 29,956.66
Total Capital 31,639.66
Debt Weighting 5.32
Equity Weighting 94.68
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 5,2596,7647,8809,66811,72714,339.3117,533.5421,439.3226,215.1532,054.84
EBITDA 443289-88467-284401.16490.52599.79733.40896.77
EBIT 411202-199340-455226.93277.49339.30414.88507.30
Tax Rate 54.91%-41.98%18.05%113.65%-16.22%25.68%25.68%25.68%25.68%25.68%
EBIAT 185.31286.81-163.07-46.43-528.78168.65206.22252.15308.32377.01
Depreciation 3287111127171174.23213.04260.49318.52389.47
Accounts Receivable --4-62-158-69-222.34-204.35-249.87-305.53-373.59
Inventories ------26.73-32.69-39.97-48.87-59.76
Accounts Payable -12289155-205488.85239.88293.31358.65438.55
Capital Expenditure -125-135-78-85-25-185.12-226.36-276.78-338.44-413.83
UFCF 92.31356.81-103.07-7.43-656.78397.53195.74239.35292.66357.86
WACC
PV UFCF 354.11155.32169.18184.27200.72
SUM PV UFCF 1,063.61

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.26
Free cash flow (t + 1) 365.01
Terminal Value 3,557.63
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,995.42

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,059.03
Net Debt -800
Equity Value 3,859.03
Shares Outstanding 195.85
Equity Value Per Share 19.70