Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Service Properties Trust (SVC)

$8.24

+0.21 (+2.62%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 28.61 | 8.24 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,294.542,316.151,265.251,495.581,863.011,855.281,847.591,839.931,832.301,824.70
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 775.04916.12511.23306.14610.72619.62617.05614.49611.94609.40
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 371.96487.6712.32-179.82209.61139.03138.45137.87137.30136.73
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 403.08428.45498.91485.97401.11480.59478.60476.62474.64472.67
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 25.9727.6373.33944.04150.99294.42293.20291.99290.78289.57
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 91.2168.6555.5348.1767.7667.4867.2066.9266.6466.37
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 211.33335.70345.08433.45372.41370.87369.33367.80366.27364.75
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure ----------
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 8.24
Beta 2.211
Diluted Shares Outstanding 164.74
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 2.26
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.90%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.248
Total Debt 5,655.53
Total Equity 1,357.44
Total Capital 7,012.97
Debt Weighting 80.64
Equity Weighting 19.36
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,294.542,316.151,265.251,495.581,863.011,855.281,847.591,839.931,832.301,824.70
EBITDA 775.04916.12511.23306.14610.72619.62617.05614.49611.94609.40
EBIT 371.96487.6712.32-179.82209.61139.03138.45137.87137.30136.73
Tax Rate 0.36%0.92%-9.54%0.00%2.26%-1.20%-1.20%-1.20%-1.20%-1.20%
EBIAT 370.61483.2013.49-179.82204.88140.70140.11139.53138.95138.38
Depreciation 403.08428.45498.91485.97401.11480.59478.60476.62474.64472.67
Accounts Receivable -22.5613.127.36-19.590.280.280.280.280.28
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -124.369.3888.37-61.04-1.54-1.54-1.53-1.53-1.52
Capital Expenditure ----------
UFCF -----620.02617.45614.89612.34609.80
WACC
PV UFCF 576.66534.10494.69458.18424.37
SUM PV UFCF 2,488

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.52
Free cash flow (t + 1) 622
Terminal Value 11,268.10
Present Value of Terminal Value 7,841.60

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 10,329.60
Net Debt 5,617.16
Equity Value 4,712.44
Shares Outstanding 164.74
Equity Value Per Share 28.61