Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Service Properties Trust (SVC)
$8.24
+0.21 (+2.62%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,294.54 | 2,316.15 | 1,265.25 | 1,495.58 | 1,863.01 | 1,855.28 | 1,847.59 | 1,839.93 | 1,832.30 | 1,824.70 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 775.04 | 916.12 | 511.23 | 306.14 | 610.72 | 619.62 | 617.05 | 614.49 | 611.94 | 609.40 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 371.96 | 487.67 | 12.32 | -179.82 | 209.61 | 139.03 | 138.45 | 137.87 | 137.30 | 136.73 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 403.08 | 428.45 | 498.91 | 485.97 | 401.11 | 480.59 | 478.60 | 476.62 | 474.64 | 472.67 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 25.97 | 27.63 | 73.33 | 944.04 | 150.99 | 294.42 | 293.20 | 291.99 | 290.78 | 289.57 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 91.21 | 68.65 | 55.53 | 48.17 | 67.76 | 67.48 | 67.20 | 66.92 | 66.64 | 66.37 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 211.33 | 335.70 | 345.08 | 433.45 | 372.41 | 370.87 | 369.33 | 367.80 | 366.27 | 364.75 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 8.24 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.211 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 164.74 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 2.26 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.90% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 14.248 |
| Total Debt | 5,655.53 |
| Total Equity | 1,357.44 |
| Total Capital | 7,012.97 |
| Debt Weighting | 80.64 |
| Equity Weighting | 19.36 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,294.54 | 2,316.15 | 1,265.25 | 1,495.58 | 1,863.01 | 1,855.28 | 1,847.59 | 1,839.93 | 1,832.30 | 1,824.70 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 775.04 | 916.12 | 511.23 | 306.14 | 610.72 | 619.62 | 617.05 | 614.49 | 611.94 | 609.40 |
| EBIT | 371.96 | 487.67 | 12.32 | -179.82 | 209.61 | 139.03 | 138.45 | 137.87 | 137.30 | 136.73 |
| Tax Rate | 0.36% | 0.92% | -9.54% | 0.00% | 2.26% | -1.20% | -1.20% | -1.20% | -1.20% | -1.20% |
| EBIAT | 370.61 | 483.20 | 13.49 | -179.82 | 204.88 | 140.70 | 140.11 | 139.53 | 138.95 | 138.38 |
| Depreciation | 403.08 | 428.45 | 498.91 | 485.97 | 401.11 | 480.59 | 478.60 | 476.62 | 474.64 | 472.67 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 22.56 | 13.12 | 7.36 | -19.59 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 124.36 | 9.38 | 88.37 | -61.04 | -1.54 | -1.54 | -1.53 | -1.53 | -1.52 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | 620.02 | 617.45 | 614.89 | 612.34 | 609.80 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 576.66 | 534.10 | 494.69 | 458.18 | 424.37 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 2,488 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.52 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 622 |
| Terminal Value | 11,268.10 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 7,841.60 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 10,329.60 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 5,617.16 |
| Equity Value | 4,712.44 |
| Shares Outstanding | 164.74 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 28.61 |