Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Synchrony Financial (SYF)
$30.9
+0.90 (+3.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 16,383 | 17,170 | 14,807 | 14,720 | 17,146 | 17,443.26 | 17,745.67 | 18,053.33 | 18,366.32 | 18,684.74 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 5,816 | 7,545 | 3,845 | 6,925 | 5,860 | 6,510.96 | 6,623.84 | 6,738.68 | 6,855.50 | 6,974.36 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 5,514 | 7,178 | 3,462 | 6,535 | 5,441 | 6,104.16 | 6,209.99 | 6,317.65 | 6,427.18 | 6,538.61 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 302 | 367 | 383 | 390 | 419 | 406.80 | 413.85 | 421.03 | 428.33 | 435.75 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 15,458 | 18,058 | 18,993 | 13,620 | 10,215 | 16,742.04 | 17,032.29 | 17,327.58 | 17,627.99 | 17,933.61 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | 3 | 3.05 | 3.10 | 3.16 | 3.21 | 3.27 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 30.9 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.577 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 569.30 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 24.94 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 15.61% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.252 |
| Total Debt | 7,315 |
| Total Equity | 17,591.37 |
| Total Capital | 24,906.37 |
| Debt Weighting | 29.37 |
| Equity Weighting | 70.63 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 16,383 | 17,170 | 14,807 | 14,720 | 17,146 | 17,443.26 | 17,745.67 | 18,053.33 | 18,366.32 | 18,684.74 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 5,816 | 7,545 | 3,845 | 6,925 | 5,860 | 6,510.96 | 6,623.84 | 6,738.68 | 6,855.50 | 6,974.36 |
| EBIT | 5,514 | 7,178 | 3,462 | 6,535 | 5,441 | 6,104.16 | 6,209.99 | 6,317.65 | 6,427.18 | 6,538.61 |
| Tax Rate | 23.44% | 23.33% | 22.93% | 23.30% | 24.94% | 23.58% | 23.58% | 23.58% | 23.58% | 23.58% |
| EBIAT | 4,221.75 | 5,503.57 | 2,668.26 | 5,012.58 | 4,084.18 | 4,664.51 | 4,745.38 | 4,827.65 | 4,911.35 | 4,996.50 |
| Depreciation | 302 | 367 | 383 | 390 | 419 | 406.80 | 413.85 | 421.03 | 428.33 | 435.75 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.06 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | 5,071.26 | 5,159.18 | 5,248.63 | 5,339.62 | 5,432.19 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 4,506.58 | 4,074.22 | 3,683.33 | 3,329.95 | 3,010.47 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 18,604.54 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 12.53 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 5,540.84 |
| Terminal Value | 52,619.54 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 29,161.20 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 47,765.75 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -2,900 |
| Equity Value | 50,665.75 |
| Shares Outstanding | 569.30 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 89.00 |