Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Under Armour, Inc. (UA)

$8.48

+0.05 (+0.59%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -2.29 | 8.48 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,976.555,193.185,267.134,474.675,683.475,935.616,198.946,473.956,761.177,061.12
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 197.98148.48369.83-287.55488.98190.37198.81207.63216.85226.47
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 24.23-33.29183.40-452.53347.83-7.90-8.25-8.61-8.99-9.39
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 173.75181.77186.42164.98141.14198.27207.06216.25225.84235.86
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 312.48557.40788.071,517.361,669.451,130.831,1811,233.401,288.121,345.26
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 609.67652.55708.71527.34569.01713.09744.72777.76812.27848.30
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,158.551,019.50892.26895.97811.411,117.691,167.281,219.071,273.151,329.63
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 561.11560.88618.19575.95613.31682.30712.57744.18777.19811.67
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -281.34-170.39-145.80-92.29-69.76-177.98-185.87-194.12-202.73-211.72
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 8.48
Beta 1.421
Diluted Shares Outstanding 468.64
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 7.88
After-tax Cost of Debt -2.71%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.400
Total Debt 1,504.31
Total Equity 3,974.10
Total Capital 5,478.41
Debt Weighting 27.46
Equity Weighting 72.54
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,976.555,193.185,267.134,474.675,683.475,935.616,198.946,473.956,761.177,061.12
EBITDA 197.98148.48369.83-287.55488.98190.37198.81207.63216.85226.47
EBIT 24.23-33.29183.40-452.53347.83-7.90-8.25-8.61-8.99-9.39
Tax Rate -368.13%31.70%56.09%-11.50%7.88%-56.79%-56.79%-56.79%-56.79%-56.79%
EBIAT 113.42-22.7480.53-504.56320.41-12.38-12.93-13.50-14.10-14.73
Depreciation 173.75181.77186.42164.98141.14198.27207.06216.25225.84235.86
Accounts Receivable --42.88-56.17181.37-41.67-144.07-31.64-33.04-34.50-36.04
Inventories -139.05127.24-3.7284.56-306.28-49.59-51.79-54.08-56.48
Accounts Payable --0.2257.31-42.2437.3568.9930.2731.6133.0234.48
Capital Expenditure -281.34-170.38-145.80-92.29-69.76-177.98-185.87-194.12-202.73-211.72
UFCF 5.8384.60249.53-296.45472.04-373.46-42.69-44.59-46.57-48.63
WACC
PV UFCF -349.68-37.43-36.60-35.79-35
SUM PV UFCF -494.51

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.80
Free cash flow (t + 1) -49.60
Terminal Value -1,033.43
Present Value of Terminal Value -743.75

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,238.25
Net Debt -165.15
Equity Value -1,073.10
Shares Outstanding 468.64
Equity Value Per Share -2.29