Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)

$22.58

+0.84 (+3.86%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -408,393.20 | 22.58 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 96.07163.82227.60841.441,904.914,312.469,762.8622,101.8450,035.69
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 14.4826.8716.66144.55266.54603.411,366.043,092.537,001.09
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 14.1626.0914.38137253.70574.341,300.232,943.546,663.80
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.310.772.287.5412.8429.0765.81148.99337.29
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 74.2950.82258.77994.991,620.593,668.818,305.7118,803.0542,567.65
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 10.8442.4430.7363.81277.52628.271,422.323,219.947,289.52
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ---------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 397.15122.2913.776.562,356.795,335.4712,078.8127,344.8561,905.19
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.04-5.28-5.61-15.11-40.80-92.38-209.13-473.43-1,071.79
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 22.58
Beta 0.000
Diluted Shares Outstanding 17.51
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -1.28
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.41%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 3.826
Total Debt 795.80
Total Equity 395.46
Total Capital 1,191.26
Debt Weighting 66.80
Equity Weighting 33.20
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 96.07163.82227.60841.441,904.914,312.469,762.8622,101.8450,035.69
EBITDA 14.4826.8716.66144.55266.54603.411,366.043,092.537,001.09
EBIT 14.1626.0914.38137253.70574.341,300.232,943.546,663.80
Tax Rate -9.81%90.58%-0.55%-1.28%19.73%19.73%19.73%19.73%19.73%
EBIAT 15.552.4614.46138.76203.64461.011,043.662,362.725,348.89
Depreciation 0.310.772.287.5412.8429.0765.81148.99337.29
Accounts Receivable --31.6011.71-33.08-213.71-350.75-794.05-1,797.62-4,069.58
Inventories ---------
Accounts Payable --274.86-108.51-7.212,350.232,978.686,743.3415,266.0434,560.33
Capital Expenditure -1.04-5.28-5.61-15.12-40.80-92.38-209.13-473.43-1,071.79
UFCF 14.82-308.50-85.6790.902,312.193,025.636,849.6415,506.6935,105.14
WACC
PV UFCF 2,312.192,979.756,643.4514,811.8033,023.42
SUM PV UFCF 58,864.09

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 1.54
Free cash flow (t + 1) 35,807.24
Terminal Value -7,784,182.94
Present Value of Terminal Value -7,211,527.08

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -7,152,662.99
Net Debt -199.19
Equity Value -7,152,463.80
Shares Outstanding 17.51
Equity Value Per Share -408,393.20